Osama bin Laden helps Bush
In the IEM 2004 US Presidential Election Winner Takes All Market , as well as at Tradesports, Bush has popped 5 cents since the release of the bin Laden tape.
Professional and amateur wagerers seem to believe that the reappearance of the bin Laden is good for Bush's candidacy as it reminds the voting populace of the dangers of going soft on terrorism.
Interesting questions:
a) Did bin Laden anticipate this would help Bush? What are his goals? If it is a signal to attack (which I don't understand why they wouldn't send attack signal silently via an aonnymous website -- they could just say to each other "look on Craigslist Atlanta for someone selling a Honus Wagner rookie card, that's the signal), is he doing so publicly in order to get credit for the attack? What are the other elements of his strategy for appearing so close to the U.S. election?
b) Is Karl Rove excited? Does he feel this helps or hurts his candidate's chances? And does Karl Rove ever put the good of the country ahead of electorla success? (My answer for Rove, as well as, Kerry, is sadly no.)
