September 30, 2003

The Curious Case of the Ambassador's Wife

The phrase itself took on a few different forms, but however you parse it, it clunked out of White House spokesman Scott McClellan's mouth a total of 13 times in his Monday briefing: "There's been no information that has been brought to our attention, beyond what we've seen in the media reports, to suggest White House involvement."

Now, when Al Gore kept hammering away at "no controlling legal authority" in March of 1997, it was called a "meltdown" by people like Charles Krauthammer of the Washington Post because Gore used the phrase seven times to defend himself against accusations that he'd solicited funds from a federal government office.

While it's far too early to judge what the role of the Bush White House might have been in disclosing secret information about Ambassador Joseph Wilson's wife to columnist Bob Novak, McClellan's clumsy answer to every insistent question asked Monday indicates one of two troubling possibilities: the White House knows who's behind it, or they had no idea what was happening, but they didn't care that a CIA officer had been betrayed amd they weren't willing to have it it looked into unless ordered to do so.

Excerpts:
...
MR. McCLELLAN: Well, there's been no information that has been brought to our attention, beyond what we've seen in the media reports, to suggest White House involvement.
...
MR. McCLELLAN: No, we don't know -- we don't have any information that's been brought to our attention beyond what we've seen in the media reports. I've made that clear.
...
MR. McCLELLAN: If you have any specific information to bring to my attention -- like I said, there has been nothing that's been brought to our attention. You asked me earlier if we were looking into it, there is nothing that's been brought to our attention beyond the media reports.
...
MR. McCLELLAN: There has been absolutely nothing brought to our attention to suggest any White House involvement. All we've seen is what is in the media reports. The media reports cite "senior administration official," or "senior administration officials."
...
MR. McCLELLAN: Well, we have nothing beyond those media reports to suggest there is White House involvement.
...
MR. McCLELLAN: You need to keep in mind that there has been no specific information, there has been no information that has come to our attention to suggest White House involvement, beyond what has been reported in the newspapers.
...
MR. McCLELLAN: Do you recall what I said a couple of months ago, as well? Because I made it very clear then what I'm making clear now, that there was no information that has come to our attention to suggest any White House involvement.

(etc ...)

Oktoberfest

If you're celebrating Oktoberfest in NYC, you have two good options: you can get yourself over to an eatery like Zum Schneider, or you can cook your own with a selection of something from one of Manhattan's best-known wursteries, Schaller & Weber (2nd Ave. & 86th St.).

September 29, 2003

Beyond amusing

Amazing. Cosmo Peres?

Thanks to Andrew Sullivan.

Just About Right

Andrew Sullivan asks the obvious question: who benefits? And I can't think of a scenario in which outing a CIA operative benefits the outer. (Outeer?)

?

I don't quite understand how this mask -- bless the Iraqi people -- bears any artistic similarity to this face.

I'm usually on the side of effusive enthusiasm for world heritage, but this one leaves me baffled.

Introducing Kel Varnson, Fall 2003 Champs-to-be

A colleague has started up a sim baseball team at WhatIfSports, and I have purchased a 10% interest therein for a buck.

Stay tuned for our romp over lesser teams from inferior areas.

This Man's Got Problems

The Segway? Oh, yeah, I built one out of spare parts for fun.

I feel like a total techno-dweeb riding it around. It just screams "silicon valley nerd," even more than having 3 cellphones and a PDA strapped to your belt. OK, I am in fact a silicon valley nerd, but I don't want everyone to know it.

You said it, not us.

Snark snark

Looks like the bad old New York Times has returned. Boggle a while at this utterly contemptuous opening to a "news piece":

Appealing to Californians' feelings of a loss of control and joblessness, Arnold Schwarzenegger declared war today on Gov. Gray Davis and business as usual in Sacramento. Promising deliverance without sacrifice and a balanced budget without tax increases, Mr. Schwarzenegger made it clear that he considered the recall race in its final days to have boiled down to two choices: himself and Mr. Davis.

Embarking on a salt-of-the-earth and baby-hugging tour across California today, the Republican action-movie hero depicted the election as a referendum on Mr. Davis's tenure, and painted a bleak picture of the state's financial condition, with businesses and residents pouring out to seek better lives in the Nevada desert.

You know, they didn't describe Clinton campaign stops as bottom-fondling.

Search Wars

In the battle for search, Google takes interesting ground.

In order to maintain credibility, Google, the advertising-supported search enginge, is going to have to treat Google HR and Amazon HR as equal customers, in my view. We'll see....

My New Favorite Airline

At SkyHigh Airlines, Chairman Howard tells it like it is:

If you're having trouble getting comfortable on our flights, it's probably because you don't fit within our ideal passenger dimensions. Our planes were designed with a specific type of person in mind: a five foot three inches, 125 pound, long-waisted, ambidextrous male/female who is very, very flexible. If you aren't that person, you should probably address your angry letters to your parents.

Honesty is a refreshing quality in a public figure.

NDA

A nice dissection of "The cult of the NDA". I agree with the author that the level of secrecy commonly assumed to be prudent among American enterprises is counter-productive.

For example, why won't private companies disclose their revenue figures? When I started a trading company exporting US made pet food to Japan (yes, you read that right, but it's a long story), I too engaged in this secrecy nonsense and wouldn't let anybody know exactly how much kibble we were pushing in Kobe. Of course, knowing that I had a grand total of two employees (one part-time) should provide an inkling that perhaps we weren't toe to toe with Ralston.

But once I got over to Japan, the first question, as a form almost of politeness, that you'd get asked is "what's your turnover" (one of the few Britishisms [Britticisms?] in common currency]. And, as the vendor, I'd have to tell them.

In all my time in business, this never harmed, and frequently helped, me.

Now with start-ups these days, this same pettifogging American obsession with non-disclosure and the perhaps related over-lawyering intersect in these ludicrous "Sign my NDA" demands. Like when a friend was starting a knock-off business of a major, popular, flash-in-the-pan, and refused to disclose anything at all without my first signing an NDA.

Look, if you can't summarize your business in 1 page without giving away the company store, you're either excessively paranoid or a poor summarizer. Skip the NDA fetishism and get on with your business.

September 28, 2003

The Twenties They Are A-Changin'

A PR campaign to introduce a new $20 bill may seem at first glance like something to mock, but it is actually quite sensible. A surprising number of folks in this country don't read papers or (heavens no!) blogs like Stone, so they are not as well-informed and up-to-date as you are, Dear Reader.

The "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire" appearance and the Monday Night Football graphic are the two cleverest gimmicks and show that the agency was really working on this one.

September 27, 2003

You Mean Advertising Promotoes Something?

A dimwitted official at the National Coalition Against Censorship's realizes that paid advertisements promote organizations that might be at odds with hers!

The French Kiss

Is this what allies do for us? Thanks for the support, guys!

September 26, 2003

Profiles: In Courage and In sane

An alert reader points us to this piece where Krauthammer nails it.

Whatever your (and history's) verdict on the war, it is undeniable that it was an act of singular presidential leadership. And more than that, it was an act of political courage. George Bush wagered his presidency on a war he thought necessary for national security -- a war that could very obviously and very easily have been his political undoing. And it might yet be.

Right on.

The Simple Fix

The Don't Call List is getting wrapped up in hair-splitting about whether or not consumers have the right to prevent people from calling their phones. If the charity and political exemption is the problem, the solution is easy -- just allow consumers to choose 0 "no calls from anybody" 1 "no calls from telemarketers" or 2 "allow calls".

Missive Meister

Meet Oren M. Spiegler, America's most prolific Letterman.

Shameless Self-Promotion

Forbes.com asks " Do Harvard Grads Run Companies Better?"

September 25, 2003

Goodbye Afternoon

::Differences::

I'll Take PHP

Phil Greenspun smacks down Java:

A project done in Java will cost 5 times as much, take twice as long, and be harder to maintain than a project done in a scripting language such as PHP or Perl. People who are serious about getting the job done on time and under budget will use tools such as Visual Basic (controlled all the machines that decoded the human genome). But the programmers and managers using Java will feel good about themselves because they are using a tool that, in theory, has a lot of power for handling problems of tremendous complexity. Just like the suburbanite who drives his SUV to the 7-11 on a paved road but feels good because in theory he could climb a 45-degree dirt slope.

true, true.

Distribution

An alert reader notes that Skype, the new P2P telephony product from the folks that brought you Kazaa, is taking off.

Wow! 733,000 downloads in two weeks. What a great distribution platform!

September 24, 2003

Throwing the Clintons a Bone

Man, what Democratic party activist paid off the Chinese to actually censor Senator Clinton's book?!?!

Even *I'm* outraged that the Chinese would censor a sitting American Senator's writings. I've generally believed that China, while repressive, is moving forward, so this daily double -- getting me to scold the Chinese and defend a Clinton -- is quite some achievement.

The publisher has posted the correct Chinese translation here.

This will be, in any event, an interesting battle between two undefeated memes -- Chinese domestic political authority vs. Clintonian victimhood. My handicap: Clinton wins.

September 23, 2003

Geek Chic

A sure sign you're warped is if you enjoy IT Horoscopes.

So ThisMouse Runs Out of a Nightclub...

Have you been asking yourself: "How do panicked mice behave?":

"Interestingly, we found that the most efficient escape was when the door size was only large enough for one mouse to squeeze through, as it promoted self-organised queuing. However, as soon as the door width was increased, the mice stopped lining-up and competed with each other, which slowed down the overall escape rate," Saloma told New Scientist.

Amsuing thast the scientist believes this informs stadium and building design.

Woogle

Google's first ever weak product. The Overture local product smashes this in half. Poor, poor, poor execution. I'm becoming more and more of a Google short.

Blogging in the Media

Some forwards, some backwards, thinking from old media.

September 22, 2003

True, Sad

There's something admirable about the "damn you, I'm talking" quality of Theresa Heinz. But could a Kerry Presidency survive his wife upstaging him so, well, amusingly?

The Intoxicating Spirit

Safire subtley slices Slick skulduggery.

Whither Google?

Interesting take on the search engine wars with a really nice interview with marketing legend Jack Trout.

And this is exactly right:

"Most of us remember that Netscape was the first browser and enjoyed the dominant position -- until Microsoft used the power of its operating system to take that market away. Based on my casual conversations with various Google folks, I get the sense that there is an organizational belief they can thwart Microsoft by simply focusing on the user experience. "

The Google organization is blissfully unaware of exactly how arrogant it has become. I have heard from advertisers, job-seekers, competitors, and have experienced a bit at firsthand, the overweening pleasure with which Google's most recent hires view their proper position in the cosmos. I think the first couple hundred hires have (rightfully) developed a tremendous sense of pride that has unfortunately translated to a "we're right,. you're not" attitude about the rest of the Internet.

September 21, 2003

Mary Jacoby for President!

At least that's what it seems a President General Clark administration would look like:

"I want to clarify — we're moving quickly here," Ms. Jacoby said. "You said you would have voted for the resolution as leverage for a U.N.-based solution."

"Right," General Clark responded. "Exactly."

And here is his position, kinda, on the war resolution:

"I don't know if I would have or not. I've said it both ways because when you get into this, what happens is you have to put yourself in a position, on balance, I probably would have voted for it."

Yes, General, eleted politicians have to take positions! They should've mentioned that in candidate school.

Clark, like most Rhodes Scholars, likes a big fluffy resume and not being responsible for making decisions. Running for President certainly pads the CV, but we shouldn't hire this first-timer for a professional's job.

Turn It Up!

Independent Woman - played by soft furry kittens.

Yes, I don't know either.

September 19, 2003

Found Album Names

The bee is unaccounted for.

Moxie

I hope this guy gets his job. He deserves it.

General Nonsense

It's an AS day at Stone.

Here, he perfectly pint-sizes General Clark's foreign policy:

Reading this essay by Wesley Clark, I have to say I'm not reassured that he has what it takes to wage a war on terror. If he had been president, the war in Afghanistan would probably not have taken place, let alone the war against Saddam. His first instinct after the deadliest act of war against the American heartland in history was to help the United Nations set up an International Criminal Tribunal on International Terrorism. I'm not even making that up. Maybe Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia could head up the committee. If I were to imagine a parody of what a Rhodes Scholar would come up with in such a moment, I'd be hard pressed to come up with something more perfect. His insistence throughout the piece is on process, process, process. Everything is seen through the prism of NATO's Kosovo campaign, his one claim to military glory. Can you imagine having to get every special ops target in Afghanistan approved by 19 different countries, including those who opposed any action against the Taliban? Can you even begin to imagine constructing a case for any action in Iraq under similar auspices? It simply wouldn't have happened. Which is the point. It's important to remember that under the last administration, almost nothing happened to address the genocide in the Balkans until the genocide had taken place. Why? Because we needed a consensus from all the Europeans to even wipe our collective ass. And the Europeans couldn't agree on anything in the 1990s. Have you noticed greater unanimity since? There's also no sense in Clark's essay about other agendas from our allies. It's all very well to achieve maximum international consensus on every international action. But what if you cannot get it? What if you cannot get the U.N. even to live up to its own resolutions, let alone American priorities? What if a critical "ally", like France, has a firm policy of thwarting American power - wherever and whenever it is waged? The notion that Bush created such a French policy is a fantasy. Clark's foreign policy strikes me as an abdication of foreign policy. That was dangerous in the 1990s. It would be fatal now.

Iragi Improving

Via Andrew Sullivan there's this good news on Iraq:

There is a terrible fear among many Iraqis that they will not be able to match the Kurds' achievement if they are abandoned by the Americans once again. "The memories of 1991 are so vivid," says Sama. "People still fear that somehow the Americans will abandon us and Saddam will claw his way back from the grave. They say, `It happened in 1991, it could happen again.' That's one crucial reason why people are reluctant to cooperate with the coalition." She adds: "I find it absolutely incredible that the anti-war people are now calling for the coalition to leave straight away. Nobody in Iraq wants that. The opinion polls show it's just 13 per cent. Don't they care about the Iraqi people and what they want at all? This isn't a game. This isn't about poking a stick at George Bush. This is our lives."

Friday screed

I have a lot to say this morning, so let's get started.

First of all, as Marc has already pointed out, Sarah D. Bunting at Tomato Nation is looking for her 9/11 angel, the mysterious "Don" from Jersey City. But how motivated is she, really? In an effort to press her search, she says she's "tuned up the page a bit," and she's even considered posting "a few signs/tear-off sheets at the Jersey PATH and ferry stops." Those aren't exactly Duane "Dog" Chapman-style tactics, are they? (Yeah, I know she wants to thank Don, not bring him back from down Mexico way to face charges, but still... how about a little old-fashioned detective work?) Finally, her ultimate lure for Don, is "possibly a cold beer." That possible beer is later described, more specifically, as an Amstel. AN AMSTEL? For your long-lost good Samaritan? A word of advice: I'm sure he'd be happy to receive your thanks, Sarah, but if you want to lure Don out of Jersey City, you've got to offer something tastier. I personally will buy you a bottle of Chimay to share with him if you find him.

Second, you may have seen Marc's recent post about research showing that as long as the first and last letters of a word are in the right places, the word is still easy to read regardless of how scrambled it is. Snopes says the existence of such research is "undetermined" (I was compelled to check because around the time Marc posted this item, I received a forwarded e-mail containing a slightly different version of the same anecdote). Still, David Harris' Science & Literature notes that the message itself has become an interesting experiment in tracking memes, thanks to its inherently unique, and therefore searchable, spellings.

September 18, 2003

The Worst Jobs in Science

1. FLATUS ODOR JUDGE
2. DYSENTERY STOOL-SAMPLE ANALYZER
3. BARNYARD MASTURBATOR

and 15 more....
You could be doing this:

Odor judges are com-mon in the research labs of mouthwash companies, where the halitosis-inflicted blow great gusts of breath in their faces to test product efficacy. But Minneapolis gastroenterologist Michael Levitt recently took the job to another level—or, rather, to the other end. Levitt paid two brave souls to indulge repeatedly in the odors of other people's farts. (Levitt refuses to divulge the remuneration, but it would seem safe to characterize it thusly: Not enough.) Sixteen healthy subjects volunteered to eat pinto beans and insert small plastic collection tubes into their anuses (worst-job runners-up, to be sure). After each "episode of flatulence," Levitt syringed the gas into a discrete container, rigorously maintaining fart integrity. The odor judges then sat down with at least 100 samples, opened the caps one at a time, and inhaled robustly. As their faces writhed in agony, they rated just how noxious the smell was. The samples were also chemically analyzed, and—eureka!—Levitt determined definitively the most malodorous component of the human flatus: hydrogen sulfide.

Levitt defends his work against the reflexively dismissive by noting that doctors have never studied flatulence and that smell is a potentially critical medical symptom: "The odors of feces and intestinal gas and breath could all be important markers of gastrointestinal health," he says. Hydrogen sulfide, for instance, is an extremely toxic gas to mammals, potentially playing a role in ulcerative colitis, among other diseases. And so Levitt has dedicated his career to the study of the myriad fragrances produced by the human gut and imprudently ignored by the medical establishment.

Check them all out and then go say "Nice tie, boss."

Ticrks Wtih Wdros

Letter order in wrods

Message: You are not going to believe this one.

Aoccdrnig to rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn't mttaer in what oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoetnt tihng is
taht the frist and lsat ltteer be at the rghit pclae.

The rset can be a total mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit a porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by
istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe.

Fcuknig amzanig, huh?

The Manhattan Grid

A reader writes:

"Since you seem to be able to find even the most esoteric tidbits of data...

Do you know who/how decided how to name and number the
mid town Manhattan street grid?

(there are prizes at stake here ;) Grazie!"

Well, dear Reader, send the prize Guinness my way...

The grid was initially laid out as the Commissioner's Plan of 1811. This map shows the 1811 plan in its entirety (notice the skinny shape of Lower Manhattan before landfill and WTC fattened it up).

Here is a nice blurb from a PhD student who obviously knows way more than I do on the topic. He's got his e-mail address in there if you want to find out more.

And, lastly, here is the Commissioner's actual plan from 1811 in all its glory.

I like my Guinness cold, dear Reader.

It Be Let

There's a new version -- Paul's version -- of Let It Be set to be released in November.

What I like most is what amiable-bloke/would-be-hairdresser/accidental-rock-star Richard Starkey has to say:

Ringo Starr told Rolling Stone magazine earlier this year: "Paul was always totally opposed to Phil. I told him on the phone (recently), `You're bloody right again. It sounds great without Phil.' Which it does."

College Freshman Builds Fusion Reactor

Slashdot has got the goods. And can you believe the kid only won second place in the Intel science contest???

Yahoo! Booming

Yahoo! sees its new toy -- Overture.com -- doubling over the next 3 years.

Money quote:

"Two or three years ago there was no business around search or mail," Decker said. "But what we have found is that there are a lot of people who will pay for enhanced features on these services, if the core service is free."

September 17, 2003

Who wants to go?

A Light Show Beyond Lasers

A Surprising Thoughtpiece

Bruce Ackerman, who usually finds some twisting, turning sophistry to support whatever Democratic policy is on that particular day, comes out with a surprisingly level-headed analysis of the California decision by the 9th District -- the most overturned Court in the Nation.

A cynic might say this is just a sign of how far gone Gray has gotten -- a limping Governor of the Golden State doesn't help Democratic chances in 2004 --but I will give him props straight up and sincerely.

Help Find Don!

Hey New Yorkers, help this 9/11 buddy find her Don.

Low pay, long hours

Space Shuttle astronauts make as little as $56K / year! Wow, that ain't much.

Mmmm.... Erskine Bowles Hot Chocolate Sauce

The Clinton Presidential Center has announced the release of the tediously named Clinton Presidential Center Cookbook. It sounds fairly.... gross.

Says the center, "Recipes among many others include Muhammad Ali's Favorite Bread Pudding; Bono's Black Velvet; Erskine Bowles Hot Chocolate Sauce; Senator Dale Bumpers Crab Soup; Shannon Butler's Cheesy Dip; James Carville's Chicken Jambalya; Clarence Clemons' Big Man Oyster Stew; Doe's Eat Place Chili; Zina Garrison's Match Point Mozzarella Salad; Mark Gearan's Slim Gourmet Boeuf Bourguignon; Whoopi Goldberg's Malibu Beach Buffet; Al and Tipper Gore's Spiced Roast Chicken; Kirk Hanlin's Air Force One Peanut Butter and Jelly Sandwich; Don Henley's Corn Dogs; Nancy Hernreich Bowen's Brownie Hearts; Ben Johnson's Barbecue Sauce; Ann Jordan's Pound Cake; Bruce Lindsey's Chicken and Rice Casserole; Capricia Marshall's Penavic Palacinke; Sylvia Matthews' Spanakopita Terry McAuliffe's Millie McAuliffe's Apple Pie; Cheryl Mills Favorite Cheesecake; Mary Morrison's Supper Club Chili; Mark Penn's Poached Salmon; John and Mary Podesta's Fresh Fruit with Grappa Sauce; Senator David Pryor's Scotch Fudge Cake; Lottie Shackelford's Squash Casserole; Craig Smith's Arkansas Salsa; Mary Steenburgen's Garlic Cheese Grits; Stephanie Streett's Hot Artichoke Dip; Barbra Streisand's Southern Lemon Ice Box Pie; and James Lee Witt's Biscuits and Chocolate Gravy."

pssst.... PSSSST!

Hey buddy, you want some small primes?

UPDATE: Twin prime conjecture is a great band name.

The Rogers Debate

Unfogged.com had the whole entry, but the site is loading slow, so here it is again:

-----Original Message-----
From: Dmitry Alimov [mailto:XXXXX@mba2004.hbs.edu]
Sent: Wednesday, September 10, 2003 9:08 PM
To: XXXXX@jimrogers.com
Cc: [email addresses of other recipients omitted]
Subject: The real facts about Russia

Dear Mr. Rogers:

I am the "lad" who disputed your factual claims with regard to Russia
today. First of all, I would like to thank you for speaking to us at
the Harvard Business School. I think I speak for my fellow HBS
students when I say that we enjoyed your original views and
interesting stories today. However, I must address the unfortunate
reality that your facts about Russia are plain wrong. You made three
principal inaccurate claims today - I will deal with all of them in
sequence.

Claim #1. People are leaving Russia

Wrong. In fact, according to Financial Times, your favorite
newspaper, Russia turns out to be the second largest recipient of
immigrants after the US (see attached FT article). Oops. While it is
true that Russia's population is declining but the reasons for that
have nothing to do with people leaving the country, it is things like
low birth rate (only 1.2 per woman), which is an issue that confronts
many European states.

Claim #2. Russia's production of oil is declining, oil companies do
not reinvest in production

Wrong and wrong. Russian oil production has increased for the fifth
year in a row (see attached Reuters article), and Russian oil majors
are reinvesting in production (many of them have US GAAP accounts
audited by Big Four firms you could easily have access to if you
chose to look).

Claim #3. Investors are leaving Russia

Wrong again. Equity indexes (US Dollar denominated) are trading
around their all time highs (see attached Barrons article), Russian
bond yields are at historical lows. As an experienced investor,
surely you will recognize these as pretty convincing signs of
investor confidence.

Overall state of the economy

Finally, I would like to quote World Bank's recent report on Russia:

"The Russian Federation has made remarkable progress in
tackling crisis and moving towards sustainable development
between 1999 and 2002. With a much more stable political
environment, the government has been able to build on
experience gained in the 1990s and implement a sound reform
agenda, in addition to maintaining macro-economic stability.
Since 1999, assisted by high commodity prices, the economy has
recorded strong growth, business confidence has revived, and
poverty has declined. Russia's sovereign credit rating has
improved, although it has yet to reach investment grade. The
speed and extent of recovery has taken most observers by
surprise. Between early 1999 and end 2001, GDP grew by 21
percent, inflation fell from 86 percent to 18 percent, the
fiscal situation turned around from a deficit of 5 percent of
GDP to a surplus of 3 percent of GDP, and barter and arrears
largely disappeared."

Source: http://www.worldbank.org.ru

GDP growth of 21%? Hardly a picture of total collapse, don't you
think?

Conclusion

I believe the facts speak for themselves. I have no time or desire to
try to convince you to invest in Russia. However, I do kindly ask you
to abstain from spreading inaccurate information. You are a public
figure and many people including future leaders at Harvard Business
School listen to you; it would be very unfortunate if they were
misled by your inaccurate statements. Finally, if nothing else, it
is not good for your own public image.

Kind regards,

Dmitry Alimov, CFA
MBA Class of 2004
Harvard | Business | School
XXXXX@mba2004.hbs.edu
Ph XXXXX

P.S. I took the liberty of sending a copy of this email to my fellow
students so that we can set the record straight.

From: James Rogers [mailto:XXXXX@jimrogers.com]
Sent: Thursday, September 11, 2003 9:23 AM
To: XXXXX@mba2004.hbs.edu
Cc: [email addresses of other recipients omitted]
Subject: RE: The real facts about Russia

Thank you for coming and for writing.

I rarely suffer fools gladly and even more rarely bother with chauvinistic
know nothings, but since you sent this ludicrous canard:

[1] My goodness. Not only do you have no idea about what you are speaking,
we now know you cannot read. The "immigration study" you mention was a
bunch of estimates for the years 1970 to 1995. What the hell does that have
to do with Russia in the past 8 years? Many were forced to go into Russia
from the Soviet Republics under the Communists, but that was hardly free
immigration as in the other countries. Even if people were going into
Russia in the early 1990s, they were Russians being forced to leave the old
USSR republics as the USSR dissolved in the early 1990s and those Russians
fled back into Russia.

You have demonstrated you cannot read nor analyze nor have any concept of
what is happening in Russia today, but do you not at least know a little
Russian history?

[2] Oh my. You really should have kept your mouth shut and stopped long
ago. This is not from "Reuters". It is from the Russian government - the
same group which claims to have had a balance of trade surplus for the last
9 years. The same group of bureaucrats and charlatans who became a laughing
stock with their "facts" under the USSR. The same who say that the Russian
balance of trade in that period has been among the largest in the world. I
did not think even B school students fell for that claptrap any more. But
then you are the one who says the ruble is a good buy and that "it is a
strong currency". I suggest you check your facts on what has happened to
the ruble in those 9 years when Russia "had the strongest balance of trade
surplus in the world". And that was a period when huge sums were also
flowing in from the World Bank, IMF, etc, etc. "Inflows from the strongest
balance of trade in the world and billions from the World Bank, etc" yet
the currency kept declining. I and most others find that extremely strange.

Somehow or another the currency kept falling since most of us realized the
same old bureaucrats were spewing out the same old garbage. I guess you
were buying rubles all that time. No wonder you are in school rather than
making it in the real world. You must have gone broke buying all those
rubles.

And if Russian oil production is really up so much, why is the price of oil
still so high? So you are indeed a gullible lad, but fortunately the market
knows a lot more than you and your wailing into the wind.

You might read the section of my book about Russia's reported figures -
especially the trade figures. Or get some one to read it to you and explain
it to you.

I know you said you have driven across Russia from the Pacific to Europe,
but I'd like to know your route and which border crossings you used and who
you found out there counting all this stuff.

[3] You really should have kept your mouth shut, but since you opened it:
What balderdash. Now we know you have no understanding of markets in
addition to being unable to read or comprehend. The Russian "market" is
tiny and is insignificant compared to GNP so it is meaningless. Even your
article points out that the few big hydrocarbon companies account for 70%
of the stock market. [a] The price of oil more than doubled in the period
the article discusses and [b] those stocks went up because of that and
because of the manipulation by the oligarchs. Perhaps you did not notice
your article mentioned the "murky" dealings in Russia?

I hardly consider 2 mutual funds and 4 or 5 manipulated oil stocks "as
pretty convincing signs of investor confidence".

But if you really believe all this codswallop, why are you in business
school? Why aren't you there making your fortune?

I presume you are long the Russian stock market?

For what it is worth, I was short the ruble and the Russian market in the
summer of 1998 and back in the earlier bubble in the mid 1990s when Russia
and its bureaucrats were going on and on with the same absurdity. Go back
and look up what happened both times. Or perhaps you were long then too and
got wiped out which is why you had to go to b school.

[4] "Overall state of the economy": Now we are getting really embarrassed
for you! The World Bank also praised Russia in 1998 just before the last
collapse and in the mid 1990s just in time for that collapse. They also
wrote in rapturous terms about all the Asia Tigers in mid 1997 just in time
for the Asian Crisis [I was short Hong Kong back then too right into the
World Bank's rapture.] And the World Bank could not give Argentina enough
money in the summer and fall of 2001 because of "its progress" when I was
getting all my money out. [All this is very much on the public record so
you do not need to fret about my image.]

Need I go on? No one has ever stayed solvent much less made money
listening to the World Bank [except business school professors who
"consult" for them].

Oh dear, you get your information from the Russian government and the World
Bank!? Are you mad? I know you say you have driven across Russia, but who
do you really think is out there in those 11 time zones and tens of
thousands on kilometers of Russia collecting all this "reliable data"?

And thanks for your advice about my analysis, facts and my "public image".
If you had done your homework, you'd know the public was and is extremely
aware that I had shorted the ruble in 1998 and back in the mid 1990s [when
I guess you were long]. It was the same kind if misinformation back then
too that gullible souls like you swallowed.

And the public is extremely aware of my record of investing in many markets
all over the world for many years. You might read John Train's Money
Masters of Our Time or one of several other books. I do not worry about it,
but you should worry about yours.

But as for public image and inaccurate statements, you have demonstrated
quite publicly and vocally that you can neither read nor comprehend what
you read nor can you analyze anything in front of you and that you fall for
anything someone tells you and that you have absolutely no knowledge of
even recent Russian history. I was terribly embarrassed for you when you
stood there babbling on in front of the others about the strong ruble - a
currency which has been nothing but a catastrophe for a decade [despite
your painfully absurd statements], but now you have shouted your
hopelessness from the roof tops for all to see.

I hope your classmates will pull you aside and pass on this word of advice:
It is better to remain silent and have people wonder if you are an idiot
rather than to open your mouth and prove to everyone in sight that you are
an idiot beyond all doubt. And one should never, ever go shouting from the
rooftops when one is a total idiot because then the entire school knows it.

FYI

Editorial Review
It's the ultimate road trip. Legendary investor Jim Rogers and his fiancé
travel to 116 countries in a custom-built four-wheel-drive bright yellow
Mercedes. Over three years, they make their way through war zones, are
guarded by military convoys, observe a fifty-million-person pilgrimage, eat
disgusting food, put the car on barges for transport between countries, and
have their lives threatened at every turn. As well as describing his
adventures, Rogers has plenty to say about the economies and roads he
encounters on his journey. (Naturally, he's driven on the best roads and
the worst.) With his keen financial acumen, he picks out those countries
with the highest prospective economic success and which ones are headed for
disaster. All in all, a wonderful trip.

"If Warren Buffett and Bill Bryson were trapped in a car with each other
for three years, they might write like Jim Rogers." (B.O.T Editorial Review
Board)

You can order my new book ADVENTURE CAPITALIST [Random House 2003] from

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/index%3Dbooks%26field-titleid%3D1424139%26ve-field%3Dnone/qid%3D/102-7686484-9696912

or

800-201-3550

or on my own website if the link above does not work.

www.jimrogers.com

XXXXX@jimrogers.com

UPDATE: Alimov responds. [Alimov's excerpts from Roger's email are in italics][headers removed--email was sent to Rogers and the original score of CC recipients]

Dear Mr. Rogers:

I see that you prefer the language of personal insults instead of informed polite discussion. Well, this is your choice and I hope this is not consistent with your sense of style – you are a successful individual (as you mentioned many times) and it would be a shame to tarnish that with this sort of attitude. Also, apologies for getting you a little riled, I didn’t mean to, nor did I expect you to. I am enjoying the discussion and would like to just rebut some of your remarks.

Thank you for coming and for writing. I rarely suffer fools gladly and even more rarely bother with chauvinistic know nothings, but since you sent this ludicrous canard:

[1] [immigration] My goodness. Not only do you have no idea about what you are speaking, we now know you cannot read. The “immigration study” you mention was a bunch of estimates for the years 1970 to 1995. What the hell does that have to do with Russia in the past 8 years? Many were forced to go into Russia from the Soviet Republics under the Communists, but that was hardly free immigration as in the other countries. Even if people were going into Russia in the early 1990s, they were Russians being forced to leave the old USSR republics as the USSR dissolved in the early 1990s and those Russians fled back into Russia.
You have demonstrated you cannot read nor analyze nor have any concept of what is happening in Russia today, but do you not at least know a little Russian history?

For your viewing pleasure, below are the actual numbers of net migration (immigration less emigration) through 2001. As you can see, there is a net inflow in every single year for the past two decades. This does not even include an estimated 1-1.5 million of illegal immigrants to Russia.

Net Migration and Natural Increase in Russia, 1980–2001

Source: State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, Goskomstat Rossii

As you correctly point out, much of the immigration comes from the states of the former Soviet Union (although a very large part of the immigrants are Ukrainians and other CIS nationals). However, the fact remains that before and after 1995, immigration to Russia far exceeded emigration from Russia, which is the opposite of your original claim.

[2] [oil production] Oh my. You really should have kept your mouth shut and stopped long ago. This is not from “Reuters”. It is from the Russian government – the same group which claims to have had a balance of trade surplus for the last 9 years. The same group of bureaucrats and charlatans who

The quote below is taken directly from US Department of Energy website (I hope you at least believe your own government):

“A turnaround in Russian oil output began in 1999, which many analysts have attributed to rising world oil prices during this period (oil prices tripled between January 1999 and September 2000), as well as a number of after-effects of the 1998 financial crisis and subsequent devaluation of the ruble in August. Today, Russian oil fields are maintained using modern technologies from around the world, and many of the old command economy institutions have been streamlined. The rebound in Russian oil production has continued since 1999, resulting in 2002 total liquids production of 7.65 million bbl/d (7.4 million bbl/d of which was crude oil)--a 26% increase over the 1998 level. Accordingly, Russia is now the world’s second largest crude oil producer behind only Saudi Arabia.

Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/russia.html#oil

Or do you think the US government is also lying?

became a laughing stock with their “facts” under the USSR. The same who say that the Russian balance of trade in that period has been among the largest in the world. I did not think even B school students fell for that claptrap any more.

I don’t think my fellow students deserve this condescending treatment. You should also know that my other Russian speaking HBS classmates were appalled by your comments in and after class. In addition to misstating the facts, you also characterized the country in an offensive manner. We are all rational people and are prepared to discuss the Russian economy and culture on merits (clearly, there are many negative things, particularly in the recent past) but it’s a very different matter when someone starts insulting a nation.

But then you are the one who says the ruble is a good buy and that “it is a strong currency”.

This is not quite the statement I made, but nice try at remembering. What I said was that this year, Russian currency appreciated and I stand by my statement. From 31.7 rubles/US$ at the end of 2002 it appreciated to 30.7 rubles/US$ now. I did not say it is a strong currency and I certainly don’t think that any currency is a good investment given that currencies are not interest bearing.

I suggest you check your facts on what has happened to the ruble in those 9 years when Russia “had the strongest balance of trade surplus in the world”. And that was a period when huge sums were also flowing in from the World Bank, IMF, etc, etc. “Inflows from the strongest balance of trade in the world and billions from the World Bank, etc” yet the currency kept declining. I and most others find that extremely strange. Somehow or another the currency kept falling since most of us realized the same old bureaucrats were spewing out the same old garbage. I guess you were buying rubles all that time. No wonder you are in school rather than making it in the real world. You must have gone broke buying all those rubles.

And if Russian oil production is really up so much, why is the price of oil still so high? So you are indeed a gullible lad, but fortunately the market knows a lot more than you and your wailing into the wind.

I find it amusing that you would ask this question. Surely you know that market prices are determined by many factors including demand (which, as you correctly pointed out in your speech, is on a secular upward trend), supply by other players (think Latin American and Middle East supply problems). Russia is one of the global energy suppliers and certainly cannot by itself control world energy prices. Surely you must know this?

You might read the section of my book about Russia’s reported figures – especially the trade figures. Or get some one to read it to you and explain it to you. I know you said you have driven across Russia from the Pacific to Europe, but I’d like to know your route and which border crossings you used and who you found out there counting all this stuff.

[3] You really should have kept your mouth shut, but since you opened it: What balderdash. Now we know you have no understanding of markets in addition to being unable to read or comprehend. The Russian “market” is tiny and is insignificant compared to GNP so it is meaningless. Even your article points out that the few big hydrocarbon companies account for 70% of the stock market. [a] The price of oil more than doubled in the period the article discusses and [b] those stocks went up because of that and because of the manipulation by the oligarchs. Perhaps you did not notice your article mentioned the “murky” dealings in Russia?
I hardly consider 2 mutual funds and 4 or 5 manipulated oil stocks “as pretty convincing signs of investor confidence”.

If the stock and bond market three year rally is not sufficient evidence for you, what about the fact that scores of major Western companies made significant capital commitments to Russia in the past few years? Here is just a sample of recent investments:

Pepsi $1 bn
Coca Cola $750 mln
Metro (Germany) €1 bn
United Technologies Corp. $400 mln
Mars LLC $500 mln
Procter & Gamble $150 mln
Boeing $1.3 bn
ExxonMobil $1.4 bn
BP $3 bn

If this is not a reliable sign of investor confidence, I don’t know what is. But you probably think these companies are lying, too? Or are they also being manipulated by evil oligarchs?

But if you really believe all this codswallop, why are you in business school? Why aren’t you there making your fortune?

Let me know if you desire to see my bank statements and resume, I’ll email them to you. I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised, maybe even compare them to yours when you were my tender age, for a real awakening. Maybe we can do the same when I am your age now, and we can revisit this cute discussion.

Rest assured, I certainly plan on continuing my career in Russia because I love the place, I am good at what I do and I will have a positive impact on the country. Surely, there are challenges and problems (name a place in the world that does not have a set of problems to deal with) but the opportunities are amazing. I find it extremely satisfying to be able to effect real change in the largest country in the world.

I presume you are long the Russian stock market?

That’s correct.

For what it is worth, I was short the ruble and the Russian market in the summer of 1998 and back in the earlier bubble in the mid 1990s when Russia and its bureaucrats were going on and on with the same absurdity. Go back and look up what happened both times. Or perhaps you were long then too and got wiped out which is why you had to go to b school.

[4] “Overall state of the economy”: Now we are getting really embarrassed for you! The World Bank also praised Russia in 1998 just before the last collapse and in the mid 1990s just in time for that collapse. They also wrote in rapturous terms about all the Asia Tigers in mid 1997 just in time for the Asian Crisis [I was short Hong Kong back then too right into the World Bank’s rapture.] And the World Bank could not give Argentina enough money in the summer and fall of 2001 because of “its progress” when I was getting all my money out. [All this is very much on the public record so you do not need to fret about my image.]

While one may or may not agree with the World Bank’s adjectives and characterizations, there are objective facts and figures that speak for themselves. Do you think that 21% real GDP growth is a sign of total collapse of the economy or do you think that the government and international finance organizations are lying about the figures?

Need I go on? No one has ever stayed solvent much less made money listening to the World Bank [except business school professors who “consult” for them]. Oh dear, you get your information from the Russian government and the World Bank!? Are you mad? I know you say you have driven across Russia, but who do you really think is out there in those 11 time zones and tens of thousands on kilometers of Russia collecting all this “reliable data”?

And thanks for your advice about my analysis, facts and my “public image”. If you had done your homework, you’d know the public was and is extremely aware that I had shorted the ruble in 1998 and back in the mid 1990s [when I guess you were long]. It was the same kind if misinformation back then too that gullible souls like you swallowed.

Every “babushka” shorted ruble during that time period; it was a highly inflationary currency.

And the public is extremely aware of my record of investing in many markets all over the world for many years. You might read John Train’s Money Masters of Our Time or one of several other books. I do not worry about it, but you should worry about yours.

I hope your classmates will pull you aside and pass on this word of advice: It is better to remain silent and have people wonder if you are an idiot rather than to open your mouth and prove to everyone in sight that you are an idiot beyond all doubt. And one should never, ever go shouting from the rooftops when one is a total idiot because then the entire school knows it.

I will leave it up to my classmates to make characterizations in this case. Again, I will not dignify your insulting comments with a response. If you are interested in what impression your email made on my classmates, please read this sample email - one of many similar emails I received today:

“Dmitry, I was shocked by the letter that Jim wrote you. I am sorry that you had to read that. It was totally ridiculous. I thought you wrote him a respectful and well argued letter and for some reason he decided to tear into you. I am not sure who is on the right side of the facts, but I do know that I talked to the top guy at Morgan Stanley Private Client last week and he said that Russia is one of their top picks going forward. All the best, John”(name is changed for privacy reasons)

Respectfully yours,

Dmitry Alimov, CFA
MBA Class of 2004
Harvard | Business | School
XXXXX@mba2004.hbs.edu
Ph XXXXXXXXXXX

Headfakes

Hans Blix resurfaces with mealy comments on Iraqi WMDs. Money quote:

"I mean, you can put up a sign on your door, 'Beware of the Dog,' without having a dog," he said from his home in Sweden."

I am now of Sycophant Theory: Saddam's lieutenants, knowing the fate that befell anybody who displeased the boss, lied to him: "Yes, our weapons are wokring", "Yes, we have successfully developed bioweapons", "Yes, we have hidden the nuke program." And American intelligence was based on these intercepted communications that were false, but apparently sincere.

Extremely Bad Taste

It makes you laugh, it makes you cry, The Onion:

God Grants John Ritter's Wish To Meet Johnny Cash

They're always there for you when times are bad.

5,151

Inching closer.

Never Give In

Came across this Winston Churchill speech again this morning, and was reminded of why he is the great figure of the 20th Century.

Almost a year has passed since I came down here at your Head Master's kind invitation in order to cheer myself and cheer the hearts of a few of my friends by singing some of our own songs.

The ten months that have passed have seen very terrible catastrophic events in the world--ups and downs, misfortunes-- but can anyone sitting here this afternoon, this October afternoon, not feel deeply thankful for what has happened in the time that has passed and for the very great improvement in the position of our country and of our home?

Why, when I was here last time we were quite alone, desperately alone, and we had been so for five or six months. We were poorly armed. We are not so poorly armed today; but then we were very poorly armed. We had the unmeasured menace of the enemy and their air attack still beating upon us, and you yourselves had had experience of this attack; and I expect you are beginning to feel impatient that there has been this long lull with nothing particular turning up!

But we must learn to be equally good at what is short and sharp and what is long and tough. It is generally said that the British are often better at the last. They do not expect to move from crisis to crisis; they do not always expect that each day will bring up some noble chance of war; but when they very slowly make up their minds that the thing has to be done and the job put through and finished, then, even if it takes months - if it takes years - they do it.

Another lesson I think we may take, just throwing our minds back to our meeting here ten months ago and now, is that appearances are often very deceptive, and as Kipling well says, we must "...meet with Triumph and Disaster. And treat those two impostors just the same."

You cannot tell from appearances how things will go. Sometimes imagination makes things out far worse than they are; yet without imagination not much can be done. Those people who are imaginative see many more dangers than perhaps exist; certainly many more than will happen; but then they must also pray to be given that extra courage to carry this far-reaching imagination.

But for everyone, surely, what we have gone through in this period--I am addressing myself to the School--surely from this period of ten months, this is the lesson:

Never give in. Never give in. Never, never, never, never--in nothing, great or small, large or petty--never give in, except to convictions of honour and good sense. Never yield to force. Never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy.

We stood all alone a year ago, and to many countries it seemed that our account was closed, we were finished. All this tradition of ours, our songs, our School history, this part of the history of this country, were gone and finished and liquidated.

Very different is the mood today. Britain, other nations thought, had drawn a sponge across her slate. But instead our country stood in the gap. There was no flinching and no thought of giving in; and by what seemed almost a miracle to those outside these Islands, though we ourselves never doubted it, we now find ourselves in a position where I say that we can be sure that we have only to persevere to conquer.

You sang here a verse of a School Song: you sang that extra verse written in my honour, which I was very greatly complimented by and which you have repeated today. But there is one word in it I want to alter - I wanted to do so last year, but I did not venture to. It is the line: "Not less we praise in darker days."

I have obtained the Head Master's permission to alter darker to sterner. "Not less we praise in sterner days."

Do not let us speak of darker days: let us speak rather of sterner days. These are not dark days; these are great days--the greatest days our country has ever lived; and we must all thank God that we have been allowed, each of us according to our stations, to play a part in making these days memorable in the history of our race.

September 16, 2003

Um, Got Anything Smaller Than That?

Here's the kind of dough we need: the Dubya Dollar.

Appeasers Amongs Us

Why didn't the press do more to publicize the horros of Saddam's Iraq? They were too busy toadying up to killers with candlelit dinners. Public affairs journalism is corrupt, slanted, and a source of comfort to evil people the world over.

September 13, 2003

Second Wave Internet Swamps Careers Category

The web business is an information aggregation, sorting, and targetting business. Solely keyword-based searching technologies such as Google, and, effectively, those of the major job boards, are not of high utility n the recruitment category for the long-term.

That's why we are seeing emergin niche players that alter the offline or pre-Web business models. With the flood of information made possible by the zero transaction costs of web seearching and sending an incremental e-mail, companies trying to capture the attention of actors in the marketplace have to turn to new methodologies.

Money quote:

But recruiters have a much harder time finding passive candidates - the managers who are happy in their current jobs but might be enticed to leave for the right opportunity.

Getting to these managers when they are not actively looking is exactly the challenge of wave two. Stay tuned.

The Careers Horse Race

CareerBuilder ahead of HotJobs in the most recent Alexa rankings according to Online Recruiter.

Wow, who knew $50 mm / year bought such great PR?

If Advertising Were Left to the People's Soviets

These awful Old School Commie TV Ads make one thankful for the annoyances of our media-rich bourgeois consumerist lives.

Revolution Confirmed

It really is a confirmed revolution when my 67-year-old Mom sends me good link suggestions:

marc,
I thought that you might like this.
Love, Mom xxx

Great Map Sites for Everything

These are excellent sites for all kinds of maps. Anyone should be able to find any map they need with these sites.
Maps.com
http://www.maps.com
multimap.com
http://www.multimap.com

Educational Outline Maps
http://www.eduplace.com/ss/maps/
WorldAtlas.com
http://www.worldatlas.com/aatlas/world.htm

Test Your Geography Knowledge
http://www.lizardpoint.com/fun/geoquiz/
National Geographic MapMachine
http://www.nationalgeographic.com/maps/

Find almost any place with Map Machine and other online National Geographic atlases, order maps, get country facts, print maps, play geography games and more!

Con-man the Barbarian

Stone can now reveal that Arnold, in addition to being a cad and a chauvinist, is a fraud. In short, perfect for the State of California.

This latest info on his